CEBR Forecasts 14% House Price Drop In 2021

The current resurgence in the housing market is likely to be short-lived according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research, which is forecasting a 14 per cent drop in house prices in 2021.The think tank says the housing market “defied gravity” in August, with indices like Halifax putting prices at record highs. It says these trends are “at odds with the wider economic turmoil”. The CEBR says that the stamp duty cut is one factor driving this apparent contradiction and it expects that the measure will result in a 1.2 per cent increase in prices and a 6 per cent rise in transactions. Read more on the Mortgage Strategy website.

https://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/news/cebr-forecasts-14-house-price-drop-in-2021/

BTL Market Will Stabilise By 2021

A report by Shawbrook Bank and the Centre for Economics and Business Research predicts that activity in the BTL market will continue to fall until 2021, at which point the market will stabilise. The report uses a scenario analysis approach to chart the effect on the market of various government interventions over the years, such as changes to mortgage interest tax relief and the stamp duty surcharge, and projects this to 2023. It compares this with as picture of how the market would likely look if these had not occurred. Read more on the Mortgage Strategy website.

https://www.mortgagestrategy.co.uk/btl-market-to-be-stable-by-2021-shawbook/

New Report Forecasts Challenging Times For Buy To Let

The buy to let market in the UK will continue to provide good investment opportunities looking ahead but there are challenges, according to a new analysis, the first since major changes to the sector. Landlords will need to adjust and while rents will rise, yields will fall says a report from the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).  It indicates that tax changes have had some effect on investor behaviour but the market remains a viable one for lenders and investors. The report indicates that yields for landlords are set to decrease over the next 10 years, declining from an average of 5% in 2016 to around 3.5% by 2027 but house price growth remain robust. Read more on Property Wire.

House Prices Will Rise £52,000 By 2021

House prices will leap more than £50,000 higher by 2021 on average despite Brexit uncertainty, economists predict. The average UK house price across the whole of 2017 will be £220,000, marking a £9,000 increase compared with 2016, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr). By 2021, the average home is set to be worth around £272,000, its report predicts - a £52,000 increase compared with 2017. Cebr expects property values to climb at a slower pace over the next couple of years as Brexit negotiations progress, with annual increases below 5%. This compares with a 7.5% year-on-year increase in house prices recorded in 2016. Read more on the AOL website.

Average Home Price Set To Rise By £40,000 In 5 Years

The price of a home will be about £40,000 higher in five years’ time, even though prices are expected to slow in the wake of the Brexit vote. The Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) said house prices will rise by 5.7 per cent this year, but growth will fall to 2.2 per cent next year. Earlier this year, annual house price growth across the UK was running as high as 8 per cent. Taking into account the Cebr’s projections, the average house price in Britain could increase from £194,000 in 2016 to £234,000 in 2021 – a rise of £40,000. Read more on the iNews website.

UK Housing: Millions More Face Higher Rents

The number of renters in England and Wales soar will over the coming decade as millions more people are caught in a trap of high rents and house prices, according to a new forecast. The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) think tank estimates there will be around 7 million households renting in 2025, up from 4.4 million in 2014. This means 29% of all households will end up as renters, up 9% from 2014. This is the opposite of what the government wants after it made increasing the homeownership rate a priority. Rents are also rising faster than pay. The average private rent in England is growing at an annual rate of 2.5%, while pay excluding bonuses is going up by 1.9%. Read more on the International Business Times website.

“Last Time Buyer” Market Worth £820 Billion

A successful downsizing policy for 'last-time buyers' could play a key role in solving the UK's housing crisis, according to a new report. Research from Legal & General and Cebr shows that there are approximately 5.3 million under-occupied homes in the UK with 3.3 million last-time buyers (LTB) looking to downsize. The LTB market owns 7.7m spare bedrooms and a total of £820 billion of housing wealth, set to reach £1.2 trillion by 2020. Key research findings include:

·         A typical LTB lives in a four-bed house, but wants a two-bed property

·         Almost a third of older homeowners considered downsizing in the last five years; only 7% actually did

·         A majority (58%) put it off until after 70; a quarter until 80 or older.

Read more on the CEBR website.

Mansion Tax: Charging Foreign Buyers and Empty Houses More Would Raise Same Cash

Labour could generate the same amount of money by ditching the mansion tax and instead raising levies on empty houses, foreign buyers and buy-to-let landlords, a new report has found. Analysis by the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) found targeted taxation could raise more than £6 billion next parliament without hitting cash-strapped families. The findings call into question whether Labour’s plans to make people in houses worth more than £2 million pay more is the fairest way to boost revenues through property tax. Read more on the Daily Telegraph website.

Outlook Gloomy For Housing Provision

Only 110,000 new homes will be built each year, according to new research by economics consultancy CEBR. CEBR’s research said that house building is forecast to remain depressed for the next four years and consequently, with population growth and falling average household size, there is likely to be an increasing shortage of accommodation. This is likely to elevate house prices, making home ownership less affordable and placing further pressure on the rental market. Read more on Inside Housing.