Rough Sleeping Figures Cannot Be Trusted, Says Statistics Chief

Claims that rough sleeping is falling in England should not be trusted, the chair of the UK statistics Authority (UKSA) has said. Sir David Norgrove’s comments are the latest development in a row over the apparent 2% fall in rough sleeping in England in 2018, which ministers said was a sign the government’s Rough Sleeping Initiative (RSI) was tackling the homelessness crisis. In a significant intervention, Norgrove said the official figures for 2018 should not be used until the government addresses concerns that some councils that received RSI funding had deliberately underreported the scale of the crisis in their area. Read more on the Guardian website.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/apr/18/rough-sleeping-figures-cannot-be-trusted-says-statistics-chief

Housing Minister Defends Claim Of Immigration Impact On House Prices

Dominic Raab, the housing minister who claimed in an interview that immigration had “put house prices up by something like 20%” over the past 25 years, has had to contextualise the figure. The UK Statistics Authority asked Raab, a leading Brexiter, to publish the evidence for his claim.  A document published by the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government shows that the finding was based on an out-of-date model that had never been intended for this kind of analysis. Raab defended his use of the model, which estimates the impact of population growth, inflation, interest rates, housing stock and wage growth on house prices. Read more on the Guardian website.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/apr/13/housing-minister-dominic-raab-defends-claim-of-immigration-pushing-up-house-prices

Peers Back Homelessness Reduction Bill

Peers have backed the Homelessness Reduction Bill but used the debate to set out concerns over the effect of wider government policy on housing. In the second reading peers voted through the bill but several expressed doubts over whether £61m of funding announced by the government for councils over two years would cover the full costs of the extra responsibilities they will face from the bill. Liberal Democrat peer Baroness Olly Grender questioned the accuracy of the CLG rough sleeping figures, which have previously been criticised by the UK Statistics Authority. Read more on Inside Housing.

Statistics Watchdog Warns Government Over Homelessness Figures

The government’s official statistics body has told the CLG to stop using potentially misleading figures for homelessness, and said it would monitor its future statements on the issue. The intervention by the UK Statistics Authority came after the CLG claimed in a series of press briefings late last year that homelessness was at less than half its 2003 peak. The briefings did not make clear that this only referred to the statutory definition of homelessness – a relatively narrow meaning which only includes people local authorities are obliged to assist – and does not take into account those given assistance under homelessness prevention and relief schemes. Read more on the Guardian website.

Inflation: Housing – Parliamentary Written Answer

Dr Andrew Murrison:  To ask Mr Chancellor of the Exchequer, if he will make it his policy to reflect house prices in the calculation of inflation.

Simon Kirby: Inflation statistics are produced independently of government by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The current main measure of inflation is CPI. This does not include house prices as these are an asset price and in line with international practice are not included in a consumer price index. However, it does include some costs associated with housing, such as rental prices and the costs of renovating and repair and maintenance of homes. The ONS also produces CPIH, which does include housing costs but is currently undergoing development work after the UK Statistics Authority found faults in its production.

Good Data Won’t End Homelessness But It’s A Key Part Of The Solution

A long-awaited report by the body responsible for safeguarding the quality of official statistics has concluded that the way in which homelessness data is currently collected and reported by Government requires significant improvement. And this amidst growing concern that official statistics misrepresent the true scale of the homelessness problem in England. The report, released by the UK Statistics Authority, found that statutory homelessness data need a range of improvements to retain its status as ‘National Statistics’. The CLG’s prevention and relief and rough sleeping statistics were also looked at as part of the assessment and were found lacking. Above all, the UKSA says that the Government needs to be more transparent about what the three datasets collectively tell us about the state of homelessness in England. Read more on the Crisis blog.

Inflation Gauge for Housing Costs Loses 'Official Statistic' Status

A measure of inflation launched to better reflect housing costs will no longer be treated as an official national statistic while it is being improved, the statistics authority has said. The CPIH index was introduced in March 2013 and had been touted as a future price stability benchmark for the Bank of England. The bank currently uses the consumer price index (CPI). The new measure was designed to address the fact that CPI does not include most housing costs faced by people who own their homes, including mortgage payments and maintenance. Last year the UK Statistics Authority upgraded CPIH from an experimental statistic - defined as being in the testing phase and not yet fully developed - to an official national statistic. But it has now said statisticians had found ways to improve CPIH and that the measure will revert to experimental status, suggesting its use as a benchmark for the BoE could be a long way off. Read more on Yahoo News.

Iain Duncan Smith’s Delusional World of Welfare Reform

Politicians may deal in terminological inexactitudes, but I can’t think of many black-is-white, war-is-peace practitioners as downright deceptive as Iain Duncan Smith. Originally, the question was whether to put it down to simple stupidity, as he didn’t understand that the numbers he promised were impossible. Yesterday, poring over his big speech on welfare reform, a few of the more polite experts spoke of his “magical thinking”. But his motives and state of mind hardly matter to the millions affected by his evidence-free, faith-based policy-making. His speech was a paean of self-praise. To read it, no minister has done such good for so many. This was a sublime response to a battery of critics who include Treasury briefers, the National Audit Office on the failure of his work programme, the chair of the UK Statistics Authority for his abuse of figures, and the Major Projects Authority awarding his universal credit an amber/red warning. Read more on the Guardian website.

DWP 'Leads the Way in Openness and Transparency'

The DWP is a pioneer of truthfulness regarding statistics, one of its spokespersons has said.  DWP ministers have continually stated that the majority of people on disability living allowance (DLA) were given benefits for life without any supporting medical evidence. The DWP's official press releases claimed that "more than 50% of decisions on entitlement are made on the basis of the claim form alone, without any additional corroborating medical evidence."  But an investigation by the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA) discovered that the real figure for claims passed without supporting medical evidence was actually 10%. The DWP also claimed that up to 71% of claimants get "indefinite awards without systematic reassessments" under the current system of DLA. However, the UKSA found that this claim was also untrue and that in the last two years of the DLA only 23% and 24% of claimants were given indefinite awards. Read more on 24dash.

IDS Defends Use of Statistics over Benefits Cap

Iain Duncan Smith has said he was right to claim that benefit claimants subject to the new welfare cap were being forced into work, despite being criticised by the government statistics watchdog for making the assertion. The work and pensions secretary said: "I have a belief I am right," as he published polling showing how popular the measure was with the public. He also denied claims that families subject to a cap would be made homeless, arguing that "the homelessness figures have hardly moved at all".  Duncan Smith has already been criticised by the Office for National Statistics for claiming the cap had led to 8,000 people finding work. He was told by the ONS it was not possible to find any causal link between the cap and those finding work. An unrepentant Duncan Smith told Today: "You cannot absolutely prove those two things are connected – you cannot disprove what I said. I believe this to be right. I believe we are already seeing people going back to work who were not going back to work until this group were capped."  Read more on the Guardian website.

Dromey Writes To Statistics Chief Over Grant Shapps

Grant Shapps stands accused of misleading the media, the public, and parliament about the extent of the housing crisis by Labour after his shadow Jack Dromey wrote to the head of the UK Statistics Authority. The letter raises questions over the housing minister’s use of statistics to obscure the depth of the housing crisis. Dromey asks about alleged misrepresentations by Shapps about the supply of homes between 1997-2010, affordable homes built in the last 18 years, rough sleeping, the cost of self-builds, and the number of houses being built in the UK.  In one case, Shapps told parliament the number of houses starting to be built in England were rising by 25% 2011 compared to 2009, despite government statistics showing annual housing starts were down 4% in 2011 from the previous year.  "I am deeply concerned that this casual attitude to accuracy is not only confusing to the public but it is obstructing genuine public debate. Furthermore, it undermines legitimate calls for real action to deals with our nation's housing and homelessness crisis," he writes.  Read more on the Huffington Post website.